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May 8, 2013
Falling Crude Oil Prices Push U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Price Down

WASHINGTON — But natural gas spot prices projected higher this year and next

WASHINGTON — Falling crude oil prices continue to push the U.S. regular gasoline retail price down, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), while lower natural gas working inventories are sending projected spot prices higher for this year and next.

The U.S. regular gas retail price reached a year-to-date high of $3.78 per gallon on Feb. 25 but had fallen to $3.52 per gallon by April 29. EIA expects the price will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer (April through September), down 10 cents per gallon from last month’s STEO. The annual average is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.50 per gallon this year to $3.39 per gallon in 2014.

EIA warns that energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and that the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices could differ significantly from the projected levels.

After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to $105 per barrel on May 3. EIA expects that the spot price will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in February, fell to below $9 per barrel in April. EIA expects the discount to increase in the near term and average $13 per barrel in 2013 and $9 per barrel in 2014.

Natural gas working inventories ended April at an estimated 1.82 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.80 Tcf below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.13 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-12).

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2013 and $4 per MMBtu in 2014, about 27 cents per MMBtu and 40 cents per MMBtu higher than forecast in last month’s STEO, respectively.

The projected increasing cost of natural gas relative to coal contributes to higher levels of electricity generation from coal. The share of total generation fueled by coal is forecast to increase from 37.4% in 2012 to 40.1% in 2013. Conversely, the share of generation fueled by natural gas declines from 30.4% in 2012 to 27.8% in 2013.

April 11, 2013
EIA Projects Gasoline Prices to Fall During Summer Driving Season

WASHINGTON — Regular retail gas price expected to top off at $3.69 per gallon in May

WASHINGTON — Drivers can expect to see regular gasoline retail prices averaging $3.63 per gallon during the summer driving season, according to projections released Tuesday in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The projected monthly average price of regular retail gasoline will continue to fall through the April-September driving season, topping off at $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September.

The EIA also expects this projection to be reflected on upcoming yearly averages: $3.56 per gallon in 2013, $3.39 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the Brent crude oil spot price will average $108 per barrel in 2013, $101 per barrel in 2014, the EIA forecasts. This price rose to $119 per barrel in early February, up from last year’s $112 per-barrel average.

The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent is forecast to average $14 per barrel in 2013, $9 per barrel in 2014. The EIA attributes this drop to planned new pipeline capacity lowering the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.

Natural gas working inventories ended March at an estimated 1.69 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.79 Tcf below last year’s level, and 0.41 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-2012).

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.52 per MMBtu in 2013, $3.60 per MMBtu in 2014.

October 23, 2012
Heating Oil, Natural Gas Costs Expected to Increase This Winter

WASHINGTON — Average household natural gas expenditures to increase by 15% this winter, EIA projects

WASHINGTON — The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects average household expenditures for heating oil and natural gas will increase by 19% and 15%, respectively, this winter (Oct. 1 through March 31) compared with last winter, according to the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook released earlier this month.

Projected household expenditures are 5% higher for electricity and 13% higher for propane this winter.

The forecast for higher household expenditures primarily reflects a return to roughly normal winter temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains compared with last winter's unusual warmth.

EIA expects U.S. total crude oil production to average 6.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.7 million bbl/d from last year. Projected U.S. domestic crude oil production increases to 6.9 million bbl/d in 2013, the highest level of production since 1993.

Natural gas working inventories ended September at an estimated 3.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 8% above the same time last year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, to average $2.71 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.35 per MMBtu in 2013.