Content about Commodities market

WASHINGTON — Drivers can expect to see regular gasoline retail prices averaging $3.63 per gallon during the summer driving season, according to projections released Tuesday in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The projected monthly average price of regular retail gasoline will continue to fall through the April-September driving season, topping off at $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September.

The EIA also expects this projection to be reflected on upcoming yearly averages: $3.56 per gallon in 2013, $3.39 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the Brent crude oil spot price will average $108 per barrel in 2013, $101 per barrel in 2014, the EIA forecasts. This price rose to $119 per barrel in early February, up from last year’s $112 per-barrel average.

The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent is forecast to average $14 per barrel in 2013, $9 per barrel in 2014. The EIA attributes this drop to planned new pipeline capacity lowering the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.

Natural gas working inventories ended March at an estimated 1.69 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.79 Tcf below last year’s level, and 0.41 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-2012).

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.52 per MMBtu in 2013, $3.60 per MMBtu in 2014.

WASHINGTON — Falling crude oil prices will help continue to push the retail price of gasoline lower this year and next, according to this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices fall from an average of $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to annual averages of $3.44 per gallon in 2013 and $3.34 per gallon in 2014.

Diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.97 per gallon during 2012 and are forecast to fall to an average of $3.87 per gallon in 2013 and $3.78 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the cost of natural gas is expected to go up, EIA reports. Working inventories, which were at record-high levels in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011 and $2.75 per million MMBtu in 2012, to average $3.74 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2014.

WASHINGTON — With crude oil prices going higher, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the third quarter to $3.49 per gallon, 10 cents higher than last month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.53 per gallon in 2012 and $3.33 per gallon in 2013.

The Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month’s Outlook, and is forecast to fall to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot oil price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in third-quarter 2012 to $9 by late 2013, assuming certain gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

U.S. total crude oil production is expected to average 6.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.6 million bbl/d from last year, and the highest level of production since 1997. Production increases to 6.7 million bbl/d in 2013, EIA forecasts.

Drought conditions affecting corn harvests and prices throughout the Midwest pushed ethanol production lower, and EIA has reduced its 2012 forecast to 870,000 bbl/d, or 13.3 billion gallons. But the agency expects production to recover in the second half of 2013.

Natural gas working inventories ended July at an estimated 3.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 17% above the same time last year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, to average $2.67 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.34 per MMBtu in 2013.

WASHINGTON — Mild weather over the past winter contributed to natural gas working inventories that continue to set new record seasonal highs, with April ending at an estimated 2.61 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 46% more than the same time last year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) average 2012 Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast is $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline of $1.55 per MMBtu from the 2011 average spot price. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will average $3.17 per MMBtu in 2013.

EIA expects electricity generation from coal to decline by about 15% in 2012 as generation from natural gas increases by about 24%. EIA forecasts that electricity generation from coal will increase by about 4% in 2013, as projected coal prices fall slightly while natural gas prices increase, allowing coal to regain some of its power generation share.

With global crude oil prices falling over the past month, EIA has lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the current April-through-September summer driving season to $3.79 per gallon, 16 cents per gallon below the level in the previous Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.71 per gallon in 2012 and $3.67 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in 2011.

EIA’s current forecast of the average U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in 2012 is $110 per barrel, which is $2.50 per barrel lower than in last month’s Outlook, but still about $8 per barrel higher than last year’s average price. EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $104 per barrel in 2012, about $2 per barrel lower than the forecast in last month’s Outlook, but $9 per barrel higher than the 2011 average price. EIA expects crude oil prices to remain relatively flat in 2013.

WASHINGTON — As working natural gas inventories continue to set new seasonal record highs amid an unusually warm winter, January spot prices hit the lowest average monthly price since 2002, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The natural gas spot prices averaged $2.67 per MMBtu at the Henry Hub in January, down $0.50 per MMBtu from the December 2011 average, the report says.

Abundant storage levels, as well as ample supply, have contributed to the recent low prices, EIA says. The agency expects the Henry Hub spot price will begin to recover after this winter’s inventory draw season ends and will average $3.35 per MMBtu in 2012 and $4.07 per MMBtu in 2013, down $0.18 per MMBtu and $0.07 per MMBtu from last month’s Outlook, respectively.

EIA expects that natural gas consumption will average 68.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2012, an increase of 1.6 Bcf/d (2.4 percent) from 2011.

Regular-grade gasoline retail prices averaged $3.53 per gallon in 2011, according to the report, which was $0.74 per gallon (27 percent) higher than the 2010 average. EIA expects the regular-grade gasoline retail price to average $3.55 per gallon in 2012. Forecast regular-grade gasoline prices increase to an average $3.59 per gallon in 2013.

WASHINGTON — Natural gas working inventories ended November at a record high for that date, about 1% above last year, and the Henry Hub spot price for natural gas averages $4.02 per MMBtu for the year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report released Dec. 6.

The EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will continue to decline in 2012, averaging $3.70 per MMBtu, 43 cents per MMBtu lower than the previous month’s Outlook.

The warm start to the heating season has lowered the forecast of average household heating expenditures for heating fuels by about 3% from last month’s Outlook. Average household heating oil and propane expenditures are now expected to increase by 8% and 5%, respectively, this winter (Oct. 1 to March 31) compared to last winter.

Monthly average regular-grade gasoline retail prices averaged $3.38 per gallon in November, 52 cents per gallon below their 2011 peak monthly average in May. EIA expects that pump prices will remain at or below current levels until early spring 2012, when prices begin their normal seasonal rise. Prices are projected to average $3.45 per gallon in 2012.

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub spot price for natural gas averaged $3.90 per MMBtu in September, 15 cents lower than the August average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report released Oct. 12. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will fall further in October, before rising above $4 per MMBtu in December.

The report lowers the 2011 forecast by 5 cents to $4.15 per MMBtu, 24 cents less than the 2010 average. Although the average 2011 spot natural gas price is lower than the 2010 average, the forecast price over winter 2011-12 is higher than last winter’s average.

EIA expects this winter’s heating season will start with an average Henry Hub spot price of $3.78 per MMBtu in October, and that the price in 2012 will average $4.32 per MMBtu.

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.42 per MMBtu in July, 13 cents lower than the previous month, according to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) short-term energy outlook. The administration now expects the Henry Hub price to average $4.24 per MMBtu in 2011, and $4.41 per MMBtu in 2012.

Production is expected to average 65.5 Bcf/d in 2011, a 3.7 Bcf/d (5.9%) increase over 2010. Growing domestic natural gas production has reduced reliance on imports and contributed to increased exports. EIA expects that inventories, though currently lower than last year, will come close to last year’s levels toward the end of the 2011 injection season despite the hot weather.

Meanwhile, EIA expects total natural gas consumption will grow by 1.8% to 67.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2011, the report says. Forecast industrial and electric power consumption growth make up most of the increase, with expected increases in 2011 to 18.4 Bcf/d (1.7%) and 21.0 Bcf/d (3.7%), respectively.

For route drivers, EIA reports a decline in the monthly average retail price of  regular-grade gasoline from $3.91 per gallon in May to $3.65 per gallon in July. The administration expects prices to average $3.58 per gallon and $3.44 per gallon in the third and fourth quarters of 2011, respectively.

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.31 per MMBtu in May, six cents higher than the April average and 11 cents higher than forecast in the agency’s previous report. This increase is reported amid growing consumption, even though inventories remain robust and the production forecast was “revised upward significantly.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects total natural gas consumption will grow by 1.4% to 67.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2011. Forecast industrial and electric power consumption are expected to rise 3.1% to 18.7 Bcf/d in 2011 and 0.4% to 20.3 Bcf/d, respectively, the report says.

Projected total consumption rises slightly in 2012 to 67.2 Bcf/d, according to the EIA. Growth continues in the industrial sector at 1.6%, as the natural-gas-weighted industrial production index rises 2.7%. Consumption also increases in the electric power sector (2.1%). Residential and commercial consumption, however, decline by 2.8% and 2.2%, respectively, stemming from the forecast decline in heating demand for natural gas, the report says.

Working natural gas in storage was 2,107 Bcf at the end of May, 237 Bcf below last year’s level at this time. Inventories, though lower than last year, are expected to remain robust due to higher production throughout the 2011 injection season, the agency says.

The 2011 production forecast has been revised upward significantly due in part to unexpectedly strong March production reported in EIA’s latest report. The agency now expects total U.S. marketed natural gas production to increase by 4.5%, up from the 2.3% predicted in last month’s report.

EIA expects that the Henry Hub price will average $4.25 per MMBtu in 2011, a decline of 13 cents from the 2010 average. The agency says that the slowing growth in production will contribute to a tightening domestic market next year with the Henry Hub price averaging $4.58 per MMBtu in 2012.

Meanwhile, route drivers can expect gas prices to remain high. It’s the same old story: crude oil supplies are expected to tighten amid growing demand in the emerging economies and slowing growth in non-OPEC supply. The EIA reports that crude oil spot prices averaged $103 per barrel in March, $110 per barrel in April, and $101 per barrel in May. The agency predicts per-barrel prices in 2011 to average $102, compared to 2010’s $79 per barrel.

WASHINGTON — Natural-gas inventories are expected to remain high through 2011, resulting in an average Henry Hub natural-gas spot price of $4.16 per million Btu (MMBtu) for the year, $0.22 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook.

EIA also expects that total natural-gas consumption will remain flat through 2011. Residential and commercial consumption are expected to decline by 0.3% and 2.4% respectively, primarily because of changes to EIA’s methodology for collecting and reporting natural-gas consumption data.