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August 9, 2012

WASHINGTON — Six straight quarters of multi housing growth reported

WASHINGTON — For the sixth quarter in a row, the apartment industry improved across all indexes in the National Multi Housing Council’s (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. The survey’s indexes measuring Market Tightness (76), Sales Volume (54), Equity Financing (58) and Debt Financing (77) all measured at 50 or higher, indicating growth from the previous quarter.

“The apartment sector’s strength continues unabated,” says NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. “Even as new construction ramps up, higher demand for apartment residences still outstrips new supply with no letup in sight. Despite the need for new apartments, acquisition and construction finance remains constrained in all but the best properties in the top markets.”

Key findings include:

  • Financing is available, but only for top markets. Only 16% reported acquisition capital being available in all markets at all times. Even fewer (10%) stated that construction capital was available across markets.
  • For the first time in a year, more than half (55%) of respondents said that markets were tighter. By contrast, only 2% reported the markets as loosening and 43% reported no change over the past three months.
  • Nearly one quarter (24%) of respondents reported increased sales volume, compared to 16% who indicated decreased volume and 55% who reported conditions as unchanged since the last quarter.
  • Equity financing marked 12 straight quarters of positive activity (Equity Financing Index at or above 50).
  • Debt financing was the highest it’s been in two years. Only 2% reported borrowing conditions as being worse from the previous quarter.
May 7, 2012

WASHINGTON — Findings reflect gradual recovery for multifamily apartment sector

WASHINGTON — Optimism continues for the apartment industry, according to the latest results of the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. The findings reflect a gradual recovery for the multifamily sector that faced a 50-year low in apartment starts in 2009, which is good news for the coin laundry business.

The first-quarter survey’s four indexes measuring Market Tightness (74), Sales Volume (57), Equity Financing (62) and Debt Financing (65) remained above 50 for the eighth time in the past nine quarters. Any number above 50 indicates quarter-to-quarter growth.

“Market conditions improved across the board, even from the rather strong level of three months ago,” says NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. “Demand for apartment residences—and apartment properties—continues to grow. We anticipate this increasing further in the coming years due in part to the large number of younger households moving into the housing market and a greater preference shown for renting.”

February 6, 2012

WASHINGTON — Market conditions continue to improve for the multifamily housing industry across all areas, according to the latest National Multi Housing Council (NMHC) Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions.

For the seventh time in eight quarters, all four indexes reflecting Market Tightness, Sales Volume, Equity Financing and Debt Financing were at or above 50, indicating growth from the previous quarter. This is good news for the multihousing laundry business.

“In the face of an unprecedented virtual shutdown of development, the apartment market continues its strong recovery as developers play catch-up to the growing demand for rental housing,” says NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. “Investors continue to view apartments as a preferred asset class in today’s environment, and long-term demographic changes favor rental housing.”

Even so, NMHC expects the pace of improvement in transaction activity to ease moving into 2012. The survey reflects nearly continuous recovery over the past two years.

Development activity continues to increase in most markets, with just over half of responding NMHC members (53%) reporting a substantial pickup in land acquisition, lining up financing, and getting building permits, though not much yet in the way of actual construction starts.

Full survey data are available here.

November 29, 2011

WASHINGTON — Commercial real estate markets have been relatively flat this year, but improving fundamentals mean a more positive trend is expected in 2012, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

“Vacancy rates are flat, leasing is soft, and concessions continue to make it a tenant’s market,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “However, with modest economic growth and job creation, the fundamentals for commercial real estate should gradually improve in the coming year.”

The commercial real estate market is expected to follow the general economy. “Vacancy rates are expected to trend lower and rents should rise modestly next year. In the multifamily market, which already has the tightest vacancy rates in any commercial sector, apartment rents will be rising at faster rates in most of the country next year. If new multifamily construction doesn’t ramp up, rent growth could potentially approach 7% over the next two years,” Yun says.

Looking at commercial vacancy rates from the fourth quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of 2012, NAR forecasts vacancies to decline 0.6% in the office sector, 0.4% in industrial real estate, 0.8% in the retail sector, and 0.7% in the multifamily rental market.

Retail vacancy rates are likely to decline from 12.6% in the current quarter to 11.8% in fourth-quarter 2012. Markets with the lowest vacancy rates today include San Francisco (3.7%); Long Island, N.Y., and northern New Jersey (each at 5.7%); and San Jose, Calif., at 6%.

The apartment rental market is expected to see vacancy rates drop from 5% in the fourth quarter to 4.3% in fourth-quarter 2012. Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates today are Minneapolis (2.4%), New York City (2.7%) and Portland, Ore. (2.8%).

October 5, 2011

WASHINGTON — Commercial real estate vacancy rates are flat and projections for growth have been moderated because economic growth and job creation have been weaker than expected, but modest improvements are expected over the coming year, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The weakening economy will slow the growth in demand for space, says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Disappointing economic growth in recent months means a slower recovery for most of the commercial real estate sectors, although multifamily housing continues to benefit from pent-up demand resulting from an abnormal slowdown in household formation in recent years.

“Many young people, who normally would have struck out on their own from 2008 to 2010, had been doubling up with roommates or moving back into their parents’ homes. However, they’ve been entering the rental market as new households in stronger numbers this year. As a result, apartment vacancy rates are declining and rents are rising at faster rates.”

Growth in the Gross Domestic Product slowed to 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.3% in the second quarter, much lower than the 4-5% expansion needed after a recession.

“A healthy recovery is already occurring in the multifamily sector, with average apartment rent expected to rise 2.5% this year and another 3.2% in 2012,” Yun says. “Normally, rising rents correspond to rising home prices. However, this isn’t happening in this recovery because buyers are constrained by unnecessarily restrictive mortgage underwriting standards.”

Looking at commercial vacancy rates from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of 2012, NAR forecasts vacancies to decline 0.3 percentage point in the office sector, 0.6 point in industrial real estate, 0.7 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.