Content about Fuels

WASHINGTON — With crude oil prices going higher, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the third quarter to $3.49 per gallon, 10 cents higher than last month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.53 per gallon in 2012 and $3.33 per gallon in 2013.

The Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month’s Outlook, and is forecast to fall to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot oil price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in third-quarter 2012 to $9 by late 2013, assuming certain gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

U.S. total crude oil production is expected to average 6.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.6 million bbl/d from last year, and the highest level of production since 1997. Production increases to 6.7 million bbl/d in 2013, EIA forecasts.

Drought conditions affecting corn harvests and prices throughout the Midwest pushed ethanol production lower, and EIA has reduced its 2012 forecast to 870,000 bbl/d, or 13.3 billion gallons. But the agency expects production to recover in the second half of 2013.

Natural gas working inventories ended July at an estimated 3.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 17% above the same time last year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, to average $2.67 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.34 per MMBtu in 2013.

WASHINGTON — Mild weather over the past winter contributed to natural gas working inventories that continue to set new record seasonal highs, with April ending at an estimated 2.61 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 46% more than the same time last year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) average 2012 Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast is $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline of $1.55 per MMBtu from the 2011 average spot price. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will average $3.17 per MMBtu in 2013.

EIA expects electricity generation from coal to decline by about 15% in 2012 as generation from natural gas increases by about 24%. EIA forecasts that electricity generation from coal will increase by about 4% in 2013, as projected coal prices fall slightly while natural gas prices increase, allowing coal to regain some of its power generation share.

With global crude oil prices falling over the past month, EIA has lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the current April-through-September summer driving season to $3.79 per gallon, 16 cents per gallon below the level in the previous Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.71 per gallon in 2012 and $3.67 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in 2011.

EIA’s current forecast of the average U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in 2012 is $110 per barrel, which is $2.50 per barrel lower than in last month’s Outlook, but still about $8 per barrel higher than last year’s average price. EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $104 per barrel in 2012, about $2 per barrel lower than the forecast in last month’s Outlook, but $9 per barrel higher than the 2011 average price. EIA expects crude oil prices to remain relatively flat in 2013.

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.54 per MMBtu in June, 23 cents higher than the May average and 34 cents higher than forecast in last month’s report, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The administration expects that the Henry Hub price will average $4.26 per MMBtu over the second half of 2011, as the inventory deficit relative to last year narrows, according to the latest report.

EIA expects that total natural gas consumption will grow by 2.0% to 67.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2011. The latest projection of total consumption drops slightly in 2012 to 67.3 Bcf/d, reflecting expected continued growth in the industrial and electric power sectors with a decline in residential and commercial consumption due to a forecast decline in heating degree-days in the Midwest and West.

EIA expects natural gas production to average 65.4 Bcf/d in 2011, a 3.6 Bcf/d (5.8%) increase over 2010. Much of this growth is expected to occur during the first three quarters of the year, the administration says, with a more moderate increase in the fourth quarter. Production growth is forecast to continue at a much slower pace in 2012, increasing 0.6 Bcf/d (0.9%) to average 66.0 Bcf/d.

Growing domestic natural-gas production has reduced reliance on natural gas imports and contributed to increased exports, EIA says. The report shows that pipeline gross imports of natural gas will fall by 3.9% to 8.7 Bcf/d during 2011 and by 4.0% to 8.4 Bcf/d in 2012.

On July 1, working natural gas in storage stood at 2,527 Bcf, 214 Bcf below last year’s level in late June. EIA expects that inventories, though currently lower than last year, will come close to last year’s levels toward the end of the 2011 injection season. Projected inventories surpass 3.8 Tcf at the end of October because of  high production rates and a milder summer relative to last year.

Meanwhile, crude oil spot prices fell from an average of $110 per barrel in April to $96 per barrel in June. But route drivers shouldn’t rejoice just yet, as EIA still expects oil markets to tighten with growing liquid fuels demand in emerging economies and slowing growth in non-OPEC supply maintaining upward pressure on oil prices. EIA projects an overall upward trend in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices, which averaged $79 per barrel in 2010, will average $98 per barrel in 2011 and $103 per barrel in 2012.

WASHINGTON — Natural-gas inventories are expected to remain high through 2011, resulting in an average Henry Hub natural-gas spot price of $4.16 per million Btu (MMBtu) for the year, $0.22 per MMBtu lower than the 2010 average, according to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short-term energy outlook.

EIA also expects that total natural-gas consumption will remain flat through 2011. Residential and commercial consumption are expected to decline by 0.3% and 2.4% respectively, primarily because of changes to EIA’s methodology for collecting and reporting natural-gas consumption data.