Content about Gasoline

WASHINGTON — Falling crude oil prices will help continue to push the retail price of gasoline lower this year and next, according to this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices fall from an average of $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to annual averages of $3.44 per gallon in 2013 and $3.34 per gallon in 2014.

Diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.97 per gallon during 2012 and are forecast to fall to an average of $3.87 per gallon in 2013 and $3.78 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the cost of natural gas is expected to go up, EIA reports. Working inventories, which were at record-high levels in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011 and $2.75 per million MMBtu in 2012, to average $3.74 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2014.

WASHINGTON — With crude oil prices going higher, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the third quarter to $3.49 per gallon, 10 cents higher than last month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.53 per gallon in 2012 and $3.33 per gallon in 2013.

The Brent crude oil spot price will average about $103 per barrel during the second half of 2012, about $3.50 per barrel higher than in last month’s Outlook, and is forecast to fall to an average of $100 per barrel in 2013. The projected West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude spot oil price discount to Brent crude oil narrows from about $14 in third-quarter 2012 to $9 by late 2013, assuming certain gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

U.S. total crude oil production is expected to average 6.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.6 million bbl/d from last year, and the highest level of production since 1997. Production increases to 6.7 million bbl/d in 2013, EIA forecasts.

Drought conditions affecting corn harvests and prices throughout the Midwest pushed ethanol production lower, and EIA has reduced its 2012 forecast to 870,000 bbl/d, or 13.3 billion gallons. But the agency expects production to recover in the second half of 2013.

Natural gas working inventories ended July at an estimated 3.2 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 17% above the same time last year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, to average $2.67 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.34 per MMBtu in 2013.

WASHINGTON — Mild weather over the past winter contributed to natural gas working inventories that continue to set new record seasonal highs, with April ending at an estimated 2.61 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 46% more than the same time last year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) average 2012 Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast is $2.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), a decline of $1.55 per MMBtu from the 2011 average spot price. EIA expects that Henry Hub spot prices will average $3.17 per MMBtu in 2013.

EIA expects electricity generation from coal to decline by about 15% in 2012 as generation from natural gas increases by about 24%. EIA forecasts that electricity generation from coal will increase by about 4% in 2013, as projected coal prices fall slightly while natural gas prices increase, allowing coal to regain some of its power generation share.

With global crude oil prices falling over the past month, EIA has lowered the average regular gasoline retail price forecast for the current April-through-September summer driving season to $3.79 per gallon, 16 cents per gallon below the level in the previous Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.

EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.71 per gallon in 2012 and $3.67 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in 2011.

EIA’s current forecast of the average U.S. refiner acquisition cost of crude oil in 2012 is $110 per barrel, which is $2.50 per barrel lower than in last month’s Outlook, but still about $8 per barrel higher than last year’s average price. EIA expects the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to average about $104 per barrel in 2012, about $2 per barrel lower than the forecast in last month’s Outlook, but $9 per barrel higher than the 2011 average price. EIA expects crude oil prices to remain relatively flat in 2013.

WASHINGTON — As working natural gas inventories continue to set new seasonal record highs amid an unusually warm winter, January spot prices hit the lowest average monthly price since 2002, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report. The natural gas spot prices averaged $2.67 per MMBtu at the Henry Hub in January, down $0.50 per MMBtu from the December 2011 average, the report says.

Abundant storage levels, as well as ample supply, have contributed to the recent low prices, EIA says. The agency expects the Henry Hub spot price will begin to recover after this winter’s inventory draw season ends and will average $3.35 per MMBtu in 2012 and $4.07 per MMBtu in 2013, down $0.18 per MMBtu and $0.07 per MMBtu from last month’s Outlook, respectively.

EIA expects that natural gas consumption will average 68.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2012, an increase of 1.6 Bcf/d (2.4 percent) from 2011.

Regular-grade gasoline retail prices averaged $3.53 per gallon in 2011, according to the report, which was $0.74 per gallon (27 percent) higher than the 2010 average. EIA expects the regular-grade gasoline retail price to average $3.55 per gallon in 2012. Forecast regular-grade gasoline prices increase to an average $3.59 per gallon in 2013.

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub spot price for natural gas averaged $3.56 per MMBtu in October, 34 cents lower than the September average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook report released Nov. 8.

This month’s Outlook lowers the 2011 forecast by 6 cents to $4.09 per MMBtu and lowers the 2012 forecast by 19 cents to $4.13 per MMBtu compared with last month’s report.

Even while the delivered cost of natural gas continues to decline, EIA expects the cost of coal delivered to electric generators to increase by 6.4% during 2011. The net effect will be relatively modest growth in retail electricity prices over the forecast horizon, the report says.

For route drivers, EIA forecasts that the annual average regular-grade gasoline retail price, which averaged $2.78 per gallon in 2010, will increase to an average of $3.54 per gallon in 2011, before declining to an average $3.46 per gallon in 2012. The agency expects that on-highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $2.99 per gallon in 2010, will average $3.84 per gallon in 2011 and $3.79 per gallon in 2012.

WASHINGTON — With natural-gas working inventories ending 2010 at about 1% below the 2009 record-setting end-of-December level, consumers can expect to pay slightly less for natural gas in 2011, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) short-term energy outlook.