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May 8, 2013
Falling Crude Oil Prices Push U.S. Regular Gasoline Retail Price Down

WASHINGTON — But natural gas spot prices projected higher this year and next

WASHINGTON — Falling crude oil prices continue to push the U.S. regular gasoline retail price down, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), while lower natural gas working inventories are sending projected spot prices higher for this year and next.

The U.S. regular gas retail price reached a year-to-date high of $3.78 per gallon on Feb. 25 but had fallen to $3.52 per gallon by April 29. EIA expects the price will average $3.53 per gallon over the summer (April through September), down 10 cents per gallon from last month’s STEO. The annual average is projected to decline from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.50 per gallon this year to $3.39 per gallon in 2014.

EIA warns that energy price forecasts are highly uncertain, and that the current values of futures and options contracts suggest that prices could differ significantly from the projected levels.

After increasing to $119 per barrel in early February, the Brent crude oil spot price fell to a low of $97 per barrel in mid-April and then recovered to $105 per barrel on May 3. EIA expects that the spot price will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which increased to a monthly average of more than $20 per barrel in February, fell to below $9 per barrel in April. EIA expects the discount to increase in the near term and average $13 per barrel in 2013 and $9 per barrel in 2014.

Natural gas working inventories ended April at an estimated 1.82 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.80 Tcf below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.13 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-12).

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.80 per MMBtu in 2013 and $4 per MMBtu in 2014, about 27 cents per MMBtu and 40 cents per MMBtu higher than forecast in last month’s STEO, respectively.

The projected increasing cost of natural gas relative to coal contributes to higher levels of electricity generation from coal. The share of total generation fueled by coal is forecast to increase from 37.4% in 2012 to 40.1% in 2013. Conversely, the share of generation fueled by natural gas declines from 30.4% in 2012 to 27.8% in 2013.

April 11, 2013
EIA Projects Gasoline Prices to Fall During Summer Driving Season

WASHINGTON — Regular retail gas price expected to top off at $3.69 per gallon in May

WASHINGTON — Drivers can expect to see regular gasoline retail prices averaging $3.63 per gallon during the summer driving season, according to projections released Tuesday in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) April Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The projected monthly average price of regular retail gasoline will continue to fall through the April-September driving season, topping off at $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September.

The EIA also expects this projection to be reflected on upcoming yearly averages: $3.56 per gallon in 2013, $3.39 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the Brent crude oil spot price will average $108 per barrel in 2013, $101 per barrel in 2014, the EIA forecasts. This price rose to $119 per barrel in early February, up from last year’s $112 per-barrel average.

The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent is forecast to average $14 per barrel in 2013, $9 per barrel in 2014. The EIA attributes this drop to planned new pipeline capacity lowering the cost of moving mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.

Natural gas working inventories ended March at an estimated 1.69 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.79 Tcf below last year’s level, and 0.41 Tcf below the five-year average (2008-2012).

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.52 per MMBtu in 2013, $3.60 per MMBtu in 2014.

March 14, 2013
Natural Gas Costs Still Higher Than Last Year, but Gasoline Prices Falling: EIA

WASHINGTON — Henry Hub spot price pegged at $3.41 per MMBtu in 2013

WASHINGTON — The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is expected to average approximately 65 cents higher per million British thermal unit (MMBtu) this year, while natural gas working inventories ended February at a level below the same time one year ago, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

EIA expects the spot price to be $3.41 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.63 per MMBtu in 2014. It averaged $2.75 per MMBtu in 2012.

In other energy news, the weekly U.S. average regular gasoline retail price fell in early March for the first time since mid-December. The March 11 average was $3.71 per gallon, down 7 cents per gallon from Feb. 25.

EIA expects that lower crude oil prices will result in monthly average regular gasoline prices staying near the February average of $3.67 per gallon over the next few months, with the annual average retail price declining from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.55 per gallon in 2013 and $3.38 per gallon in 2014.

U.S. crude oil production exceeded an average level of 7 million barrels per day in November and December, the highest volume in more than 20 years.

EIA warns that energy price forecasts are highly uncertain and that the current values of futures and options contracts suggest prices could differ significantly from its forecast.

January 28, 2013
Gasoline Prices Projected Lower but Natural Gas Costs on Way Up: EIA

WASHINGTON — Retail gas price expected to average $3.44 per gallon nationally in 2013

WASHINGTON — Falling crude oil prices will help continue to push the retail price of gasoline lower this year and next, according to this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices fall from an average of $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to annual averages of $3.44 per gallon in 2013 and $3.34 per gallon in 2014.

Diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.97 per gallon during 2012 and are forecast to fall to an average of $3.87 per gallon in 2013 and $3.78 per gallon in 2014.

Meanwhile, the cost of natural gas is expected to go up, EIA reports. Working inventories, which were at record-high levels in early November, ended 2012 at an estimated 3.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), slightly above the level at the same time the previous year.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011 and $2.75 per million MMBtu in 2012, to average $3.74 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.90 per MMBtu in 2014.

December 12, 2012
Projected Colder Winter to Push Natural Gas Use Higher: EIA

WASHINGTON — EIA expects Henry Hub spot price to average $3.68 per MMBtu in 2013

WASHINGTON — While natural gas working inventories reached an all-time weekly record in early November, weather forecasts predicting a winter much colder than last year’s mild season imply that large increases in natural gas use for heating are to come, according to this month’s Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Overall natural gas consumption in late October and early November showed little response to Hurricane Sandy, which hit the Northeast on Oct. 29. Declines in natural gas-fired generation because of electric power outages may have been somewhat mitigated by power producers substituting natural gas for shut-down nuclear capacity resulting from the storm. Most effects appear to have been short-lived, and EIA didn’t substantially adjust its forecast as a result, the report indicates.

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $4.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2011, will average $2.78 per MMBtu in 2012 and $3.68 per MMBtu in 2013.

U.S. monthly average regular gasoline retail prices fell from $3.85 per gallon in September to $3.45 per gallon in November, as crude oil prices fell and the gasoline market transitioned from summer‐grade to lower-cost winter‐grade gasoline specifications.

Projected national average regular gasoline retail prices average $3.63 per gallon in 2012 and $3.43 per gallon in 2013, compared with $3.53 per gallon in 2011. Forecast diesel fuel retail prices average $4.02 per gallon during the fourth quarter of 2012 before falling to an average of $3.84 per gallon in 2013.

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